Will There Be A Banking Crisis?
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Fall of 2020, the Covid Pandemic was raging, the economy was shut down, inflation was 2%, interest rates were near zero, and the Federal Reserve was printing massive amounts of money. While the Central Bank printing presses were running full steam, I heard two economists make statements that seemed impossible to believe at the time, because the world was at a standstill.
Chetan Ahya, Managing Director and Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley said: “The driving forces of inflation are already aligned, and a regime shift is underway.”
Paul Tutor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager said: “We are witnessing the great monetary inflation…an unprecedented expansion of every form of money unlike anything the developed world has ever seen.”
As we now know, our current economic reality is quite different from what it was just 2 ½ years ago. Interest rates have risen significantly, inflation remains stubbornly high, and banks are tightening credit and hording deposits because they have massive unrealized losses in their bond portfolios. There are now legitimate concerns about the stability of the banking system.
About the only thing that remains constant is the ridiculous childish gridlock that continues in Washington. I wish they would stop playing politics and start doing their job of governing. But I digress…
I was recently piloting my plane from Dallas back to Minnesota. As I began my decent, I flew into the smoke that had migrated down from the Canadian wildfires. My visibility went to near zero. It reminded me of today’s investment environment and outlook. Visibility is currently quite low. Therefore, it is more important than ever before to have a sound, long-term strategy with a clear focus. Risk management needs to be a key priority.
This is a good time for investors to do a fundamental review of how they are positioned, and determine what needs to change now to optimize investment results in coming years.
Making sound investments has always been based on anticipating how the world might evolve. While no one has a crystal ball on making bullet proof long-term predictions, I believe many of today’s key trends and themes can be utilized to make smart investment decisions.
So, while there are a lot of uncertainties in the short-term, I believe investors should remain almost fully invested with high allocations in real assets. This is your downside protection against inflation, a falling dollar, and an unstable financial system.
The most important advice we can give you at this point is to set your priorities right. That means, first and foremost, having a very safe and secure place to store your wealth. This is relevant because we have been receiving increased questions concerning our current 6% rate. I recently had an investor ask me if I thought our rate should be higher since there are short term CD’s floating around offering rates that seem too good to be true. My response was that you must ask the question, “Why would a bank be willing to pay…say…5% for deposits when they are making loans at 7%?” That spread is not enough for their business model to work. So, why would they do that? The only answer I can think of is that they need more deposits to shore up their depleted capital. All this reminds me of Mark Twain’s quote when he said, “The return of my money is more important than the return on my money.”
What to own, has really become one of the most critical questions in wealth and risk management. The recent banking crisis shows that investors simply can’t assume banks are safe anymore. There are great benefits and opportunities to be found when investing in cash flowing real assets. This doesn’t just offer more diversification, but it greatly enhances wealth protection as well. Additionally, we find that our clients use the monthly cash flow for all kinds of wonderful things, enhancing their lives and the lives of those they care about.
If you’d like to speak with someone about securing your investments, we would love to connect with you!
Gratefully,
Jeff Huston and the 3D Money Team
320-905-3306
